Cycle summary
| cycle | bottom | bottom price | peak multiple | days to peak | length |
|---|
What this chart shows
Every Bitcoin cycle since 2011, drawn from the same starting line: day 0 is each cycle's bear-market low, and the y-axis is how many times price has multiplied since. The log scale makes shapes comparable across eras — a doubling looks the same whether it happens from $160 or $16,000.
How to read it
Three things stand out across four cycles. The shapes rhyme: a year of basing, a grind higher, a vertical run, a peak. The magnitudes shrink: each cycle's peak multiple has been a fraction of the previous one, the mathematics of a growing base. And the clock is loose: peaks landed roughly 370, 1,060 and 1,070 days after their lows — same order, not the same schedule. Where the current line sits against the older ones tells you which phase the market would be in if the rhyme holds — treat it as context, never a script.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes from Bitstamp (2011–2017) and Binance spot (2017–today), the exact series behind our drawdown and risk pages. Bottoms are the standard dates used across the industry; the math is a division, not a model.
FAQ
How are the cycles aligned?
Each line starts at day 0 on its bear-market bottom — Nov 2011, Jan 2015, Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 — and shows the price multiple from that low on a log scale. Aligning by lows makes the shapes directly comparable.
Why compare from bottoms rather than halvings?
The bottom is a market event; the halving is a calendar event. Cycle lows have historically preceded halvings by 12–18 months, and aligning by lows keeps the accumulation phase, the run and the peak in the same relative position on every line.
Are cycles getting weaker?
Peak multiples have declined every cycle so far: roughly 500x from the 2011 low, 120x from 2015, 22x from 2018. That's diminishing returns on a growing base — visible directly on this chart as each line topping lower than the last.
Do past cycles predict the current one?
No. Four cycles are four samples — enough to see rhymes in shape and timing, not enough to forecast. Use the overlay as context, not a script.
Related: Power law model · Drawdown from ATH · Market structure